During my long six-hour commutes from our home in Capas, Tarlac to my university in Los Baños, I would always pass through Metro Manila. Coming from a small town, the tall, gleaming towers piercing the sky amazes me – screaming dreams and ambition. But just a few blocks away from these high-rises, another scene unfolds: crowded shanties, makeshift homes, and families squeezed into narrow alleys.
This obvious contrast never left me wondering about the silent crisis. How could the Philippines face a massive housing shortage, while at the same time suffer from condominiums oversupply?
A crisis measured in millions
The numbers are staggering. UN Habitat estimates around 3.7 million Filipino families live as informal settlers, with half a million in high-risk slum areas of Metro Manila alone. Additionally, the housing backlog stood at 6.5 million units in 2022 and is projected to balloon to 22 million by 2040.
And yet, ironically, the Metro today experiences condo oversupply. Multinational property firm Colliers reports that Metro Manila’s condominium vacancy rate reached 24.5% in Q2 2025—an oversupply fueled by the pandemic and the ban on Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs).
An intern’s view from the inside
As an undergraduate economics student at UP Los Baños, I was taught to look for “economics for the people.” So when I landed an internship with Colliers’ research team, I thought I’d finally find answers to this paradox.
The internship gave me a good view of the real estate world. I was onboarded with an “exclusive” property market briefing – giving me context not just in the residential sector but also to the hotel, retail, and industrial park sectors. I helped gather data, drafted market commentaries, and even learned forecasting—skills that pushed me to see beyond statistics. Forecasting condo occupancy, for example, helped me understand that the glut was concentrated in the middle-market segments. These are units priced well beyond the reach of low-income families.
The irony became clear: the units left vacant target middle-market buyers, not the poorest Filipinos, revealing a mismatch between supply and demand.
When prices outrun wages
The Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) has pointed out the root problem: wages simply haven’t kept up with housing prices. Colliers’ own market briefings confirmed that residential prices and rents continue to climb. Without rising incomes or temper in housing costs, even “affordable” condominium units would remain out of reach for many low-income families.
The Pambansang Pabahay Para sa Pilipino Housing (4PH) Program is the government’s response to the housing crisis. It partners with private developers to build socialized housing in high-demand areas. To attract developers, the program raised the price ceiling for socialized housing. While increasing supply could ease pressure on housing prices, the higher ceiling may price-out low-income households. Some experts warn that this adjustment could widen the affordability gap rather than close it, especially for the poorest Filipinos.
In fact, a 2022 PIDS study recommended stronger government-led solutions to the housing crisis instead of relying primarily on private-led approaches. Among the ideas gaining traction: community land trusts, where the land is owned collectively and homes remain affordable in perpetuity.
More than just numbers
The condo glut and the housing backlog are not a paradox; rather, they are outcomes of structural forces—rising land values, slow wage growth, and the market and policy frameworks that shape where supply is directed. Ultimately, the government holds the steering wheel to ensure that real estate development brings every Filipino on board.
I began my journey with a question. I ended it with more: How can future economists, policymakers, and investors rethink housing so that the Filipino dream of homeownership becomes both sustainable and inclusive?
My stint at Colliers Philippines gave me a meaningful learning journey into the Philippine housing landscape. I still have much to learn, but I gained purpose. This internship taught me to stay curious, think critically, and keep searching for ways to help bridge the gap between the towers that rise above and the families who need homes below.
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